What Is Polymarket? History, How It Works, Regulation & Sources

Overview: What Is Polymarket?

According to Wikipedia, Polymarket is a prediction market where individuals place bets on future outcomes. Participants deposit USDC (a stablecoin) via the Polygon blockchain and trade shares that represent the likelihood of specific outcomes—for example, who will win an election, whether a sports team will win, or whether an economic indicator will hit a certain level. Prices are set by supply and demand; when the event resolves, winning shares typically pay out $1 per share and losing shares expire worthless. The platform advertises that its markets "reflect real-time sentiment," though scholars have questioned how accurately they aggregate information about outcomes [17].

The betting markets offered by Polymarket—including military and geopolitical events—as well as the possibility of insiders trading on non-public information have been described by the Wall Street Journal as a "legal and ethical grey area" [2]. Polymarket has been banned or restricted in several jurisdictions, including France, Switzerland, Singapore, Poland, Romania, Belgium, and Australia; it was also blocked in the United States from 2022 until late 2025 following a settlement with the CFTC, before the regulatory environment changed and the company returned to U.S. access [4], [14].

History

Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan [6]. In January 2022, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Polymarket $1.4 million and issued a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility [8], [9]. The CFTC noted that Polymarket offered substantial cooperation, which led to a lower penalty [6].

In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former CFTC commissioner, as chairman of its advisory board [10]. In May 2024, the company announced it had raised $70 million across two funding rounds, with investments from Vitalik Buterin (Ethereum co-founder) and Founders Fund (Peter Thiel's venture firm) [6], [11]. In October 2025, Polymarket secured up to a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), valuing the company at around $8 billion [15]; by February 2026 its valuation was reported at about $9 billion [4]. In November 2025, Polymarket received an Amended Order of Designation from the CFTC and began expanding in the United States [58].

Polymarket blocked U.S. customers from 2022 until December 2, 2025, following the CFTC settlement that accused it of operating an unregistered derivatives-trading platform [14]. After the second Trump administration eased the regulatory environment, Polymarket added Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor; his firm 1789 Capital had invested in the company [4], [5]. In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC formally ended their investigations into Polymarket without bringing new charges [56]. Polymarket later acquired QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, for $112 million, enabling it to operate in the United States in compliance with federal regulation [57].

How Polymarket Works (Brief)

Users deposit USDC and trade YES and NO shares on binary outcomes. Each share typically pays $1 if the outcome occurs (YES) or does not occur (NO), and $0 otherwise. Markets cover politics (e.g. U.S. elections), sports, crypto, economics, weather, and other events. In 2024, the U.S. presidential race became the platform's most active market, with over $3.3 billion wagered as of early November 2024 [18]. For a step-by-step on orders, resolution, and fees, see our how does Polymarket work and how trading works on Polymarket guides.

Elections and Notable Controversies

Polymarket has drawn attention for both timely predictions and controversy. In 2024, a few days after the June 27 presidential debate, Polymarket showed a sharp rise in the probability that Joe Biden would withdraw from the race (from about 20% to around 70%), weeks before he did so [20]. In August 2024, Polymarket gave Josh Shapiro roughly 68% odds to be Kamala Harris's running mate and Tim Walz about 23%; Harris chose Walz the next day [21].

In October 2024, a large swing in Trump's favor on Polymarket—to about 53%—was reported by Forbes and others; theories included large wagers by one or a few users (e.g. after Elon Musk spoke at a Trump rally and had promoted Polymarket). Because Polymarket did not cap individual bet sizes, such moves could reflect concentrated money rather than a broad shift in sentiment. Nate Silver, then a Polymarket advisor, said the shift was a "larger swing than is justified" [22]. The Wall Street Journal later reported that four accounts with about $30 million in Trump-related bets behaved similarly; Polymarket investigated and concluded they were controlled by one French trader with no evidence of market manipulation. That trader reportedly won about $85 million after Trump's victory [24], [25], [26].

In other cases, suspicious or insider-like activity has been reported. In January 2026, a newly created account was reported to have netted over $400,000 from positions on Nicolás Maduro being ousted and U.S. military action against Venezuela before the 2026 U.S. strikes in Venezuela were publicly announced [29], [31]. The Economist has written that "prediction markets are rife with insider betting" [3]. Polymarket has also faced scrutiny over war-related markets (e.g. Russo-Ukrainian War, Venezuela, Iran) and was criticized for a market on nuclear detonation that was removed after nearly $850,000 in bets [32], [33].

Regulation and Bans

Polymarket has been banned or restricted in several countries. France's gambling authority investigated Polymarket and the company agreed to geo-block France [49], [50]. Switzerland, Singapore, Poland, Romania, Belgium, and Australia have also taken action against or blocklisted the platform [45], [47], [52], [53], [54], [46].

In the United States, the FBI raided Coplan's home in November 2024 and seized his phone as part of a DOJ investigation into Polymarket allegedly allowing U.S.-based users to bet on the site [41], [42]. As noted above, the DOJ and CFTC later closed their investigations without new charges, and Polymarket returned to U.S. access. Some U.S. states have since pursued their own actions. In January 2026, Nevada's Gaming Control Board filed a civil complaint seeking to prevent Polymarket from offering event contracts to Nevada residents without a state gaming license, citing a Massachusetts ruling that similar contracts functioned as illegal sports wagering under state law. The question of whether federal law (the Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gambling enforcement against prediction markets remains in litigation [59], [60], [61].

Using HolyPoly With Polymarket

HolyPoly is not affiliated with Polymarket. We use Polymarket's public data to rank wallets by win rate and PnL, surface Top Wallets, Recent trades, and Winning trades, and provide copy-ready playbooks so you can follow the same positions on Polymarket. You execute trades yourself on Polymarket or use your own risk and compliance. For more, see how to copy trade on Polymarket and how to use HolyPoly. The HolyPoly leaderboard is available to Pro subscribers.