How to Evaluate Polymarket Traders: Win Rate, PnL & Volume
A practical framework for judging whether a Polymarket wallet is worth copying—and why raw PnL alone is misleading.
Why Metrics Matter More Than Hype
Polymarket’s public leaderboards (e.g. on polymarket.com) sort by PnL by default. A wallet can be top of the list from a few lucky outsized bets. To find repeatable edge you need win rate on closed trades, sample size, and consistency over time. HolyPoly applies exactly these filters so you don’t have to eyeball spreadsheets.
Minimum Criteria for “Worth Copying”
Below is a baseline we use to treat a wallet as copy-worthy. Fewer than 50 closed trades is noise; win rate under 55–60% with no size-adjusted edge is not a systematic edge.
| Metric | Minimum | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Closed trades | 50+ | Sample size; below this, win rate is unstable. |
| Win rate (closed) | 60%+ | Indicates edge on resolved positions, not luck. |
| PnL (rolling) | Positive 3+ weeks | Consistency over time, not a one-off spike. |
| Volume | Meaningful activity | Confirms they trade regularly; stale wallets drop off. |
Win Rate: The Right Denominator
Win rate should be computed on closed (resolved) positions only. Open positions are unrealized; including them distorts the number. HolyPoly’s leaderboard uses win rate on last 50+ closed trades so you see realized edge, not hope. A 70% win rate on 20 trades is not the same as 65% on 200—always check sample size.
PnL Consistency Over Time
A single week or month of big PnL can be variance. We care about positive PnL over at least three consecutive weeks. That filters out one-event wonders and favors wallets that perform across multiple market regimes. You can see rolling PnL and weekly consistency on our leaderboard.
Why Volume Matters
Volume (total $ traded) shows engagement. Low volume with high win rate might be a few lucky small bets; high volume with solid win rate suggests the edge scales. It also helps distinguish active traders from abandoned wallets. When comparing best Polymarket wallets to copy, combine volume with win rate and PnL consistency—not PnL alone.
Bottom line
Evaluate Polymarket traders on: (1) 50+ closed trades, (2) 60%+ win rate on those trades, (3) positive PnL over 3+ weeks, (4) meaningful volume. HolyPoly applies these filters and ranks wallets so you can copy with confidence. Get 3 free playbooks to start.